Rootin' for Putin
Thoughts on If Russia Wins: A Scenario by Carlo Masala, translated by Olena Ebel and Ruth Ahmedzai Kemp
“Have you heard my latest song?” asked Murderer John.
“Go on.”
“It’s called Rootin’ for Putin.”
John is a brilliant musician, both because of and despite his penchant for the somewhat provocative titles and lyrics he chooses to accompany his compositions.
As you might have guessed, in If Russia Wins: A Scenario, Carlo Masala is not rootin’ for Putin. Rather, it imagines a series of not ideal (for Europe, at least) events that might follow if Ol’ Pooty comes out on top in Ukraine.
It’s a kind of war game scenario, but somewhat elevated by the fact that Masala has taken some Le Carré-style liberty to make the scenario more readable, instead of publishing a cold official assessment that might otherwise be found on a White House desk.
Thinking about it, I’m surprised this kind of thing isn’t published more often.
I used to write copy for a former advisor to the Pentagon on a phenomenon known as “currency wars.”
As Masala does here, this guy would imagine—based on current knowledge and genuine intel—how one country might “attack” another country by using its currency, and its financial system in general.
The meetings I’d have with this guy were fascinating, and the scenarios he calculated were extremely compelling.
It’s the same with this, to the extent that the day after reading, I read in the news about Russia ordering a move that was not at all dissimilar to one of the imagined moves in the book.
Hmmm, I thought. That is weird. Maybe this Masala guy is onto something.
Of course, as Masala is at pains to point out, the scenario is imagined and is only one of an infinite number of possible outcomes of the war in Ukraine.
Despite that, there is still a certain political bias baked into the book—its very publication is effectively an act of political bias.
I’m not judging that—it’s just that whenever I read anything overtly political, I try to at least be aware of what biases might be baked in. I encourage people to do the same, regardless of their own views on any subject.
Ironically, I picked this up because I heard Alastair Campbell mention it on The Rest is Politics podcast. Ironic because I feel that show has become far too biased, or rather, it’s lost its awareness of its own bias. But that’s just me—I’m getting old, and I’m told this tends to happen, until the only thing you can actually engage with are niche history programmes on VHS, which you watch with the heating turned off, sneering at the mere presence of other people outside your home.
To be fair, though, Masala doesn’t offer any moral judgment on the implications of his scenario. He just describes what could happen, and whether you think that’s right or wrong or good or bad, that’s up to you.
I enjoyed it, even if the thought of inevitably having to learn Mandarin doesn’t sound too appealing.
My recommendation: Read in the old Anderson shelter at the bottom of your garden, just in case.